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Press release

Berlin, September 27, 2011

ESMT presents comprehensive simulation model for electric mobility

  •     Model examines effects of changes in external factors and political decisions on the implementation of various technologies
  •     Reference scenario shows that 15% of the German vehicle fleet will have grid connection in 2030

ESMT European School of Management and Technology presented the research project "Market Model Electric Mobility" (MMEM) today. Since 2010 a team at ESMT has been developing a comprehensive simulation model in a research project financed by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment (BMU). The model simulates the effects of different conditions, such as market incentives, taxation, infrastructure subsidies, various forms of network integration, etc., and can, at the same time, show the effects of changes in external factors, such as oil prices or battery cost degression.

While focusing on the development of electric vehicles, the simulation model also shows the market penetration of different propulsion technologies (gasoline, diesel, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, range extender, electric vehicles, CNG vehicles, E85, and fuel cells) for the German passenger car fleet by 2050.

At the present there are more charging stations than charging electric vehicles in Germany. However, the reference scenario of the model shows that in 2030 6 million or 15% of all vehicles on the market will be plug-in hybrids, battery, and range extenders—given no political intervention and while maintaining the fleet emission standards of 95g/km.  The findings also show that both vehicle purchasers and German manufacturers can benefit from more efficient and thus better quality vehicles. The report of the research results and a "web light" version of the simulation model may be found at

"The model helps to trace the consequences of policy frameworks for electric mobility over time and to quantify their impact on citizens, businesses, state budgets, and the environment," says project leader Michael Holtermann. "We were most surprised by the major side effects that political actions have on the market."

About ESMT

ESMT European School of Management and Technology was founded in October 2002 by 25 leading global companies and institutions. The international business school offers a full-time MBA, an executive MBA, and open enrollment and customized executive education programs. ESMT focuses on three main topics: leadership and social responsibility, European competitiveness, and the management of technology. Additionally the business school provides an interdisciplinary platform for discourse between politics, business, and academia. ESMT is based in Berlin, Germany, with an additional campus in Schloss Gracht near Cologne, where USW Netzwerk runs the German-speaking executive education programs of the business school. ESMT is a private business school, accredited by the German state, AACSB, AMBA, and FIBAA.